1/3/24 News
By Copeland Jacobs, Staff Writer
Happy New Year. 2024 is so new that I reflexively titled this article 1/3/23 before realizing my mistake. We return now to the primaries with a sense of déjà vu.
2024 is 2020
The Associated Press reports the Republican Iowa caucuses aren’t as frenzied as in past years. This is because Trump’s lead and popularity effectively mitigate other candidates running aggressively against him. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are running indirectly against Donald Trump, pitching themselves as alternatives without offending his base, a major part of the GOP.
NBC reports the Republican candidates have spent around $105 million in the primaries, suggesting there’s life in the race for the Republican ticket, even if it isn’t making for an exciting spectacle. Surprisingly, Haley is outspending Trump by a wide margin, and added together, two DeSantis-aligned super PACs exceed the money spent by the Trump campaign proper.
Per the same AP article, independent voters aren’t pleased with Trump or incumbent president Joe Biden. An AP-NORC poll shows the rare fact equally disheartening to Democrats and Republicans. Those guys with big leads? They’re making 3 in 10 Americans dissatisfied.
This is par the course coming off 2023, when Congress was ranked poorly, Biden was ranked poorly, and if I remember correctly, Trump was also ranked poorly when he was in office.
This negativity is persistent. Another more recent AP piece said 56% of American adults would be dissatisfied with Biden on the Democratic ticket, and 58% would be dissatisfied with Trump on the Republican ticket.
There isn’t anything groundbreaking about the 2024 presidential election you didn’t already see in 2020, except for COVID-19 falling off as a critical issue. Trump has legal problems and makes controversial statements. Biden’s age concerns voters who rate him poorly on the economy, the Biden campaign says Trump is dangerous. The Trump campaign says the cases against him are biased.
The difference between 2020 and 2024 is a lack of enthusiasm from the electorate about the same candidates running on familiar platforms. In 2024, the mood is resigned; according to AP, it is deeply apathetic.
An ABC article said the Biden campaign is turning to history by starting his campaign at Valley Forge, which isn’t surprising in an election that looks very much like the previous one. A message from his campaign manager, Quentin Fulks, parallels Biden and George Washington, invoking Washington’s transformation of “a disorganized alliance of colonial militias into a cohesive coalition.”
Whether or not either frontrunner can overcome the absence of enthusiasm is a question for tomorrow.
Author: Tracy Sanders
